THANKS TO DIGITAL LANCELOT
The Canary Islands are facing a population increase of nearly 350,000 people in the next fifteen years, something that could, according to the INE, be unsustainable for the islands and that requires a rethinking of the situation to avoid generating a significant impact social and environmental in the islands.
Indeed, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) estimated days ago that, if current demographic trends continue, the population of the Canary Islands will grow by more than 2.6 million inhabitants in the next fifteen years.
This means that to the 2.2 million people who currently live on the islands, another 350,000 people will be added, and that suggests a huge environmental, social and economic impact.
The Canarian institutions face a reality: it is necessary to take preventive measures since the Canary Islands are a limited and scarce territory.
This growth will be due to the increase in new residents arriving in the Islands from abroad, since the projection of the vegetative balance (difference between births and deaths) in the Archipelago between now and the beginning of 2037 would continue to be negative, while migration between communities Autonomous companies would be practically on par, as published by Diario de Avisos and Tinerfe Fumero.
On the contrary, the one referring to the exterior is the one that would grow considerably (especially, in the first of the three decades that we are dealing with) and this would make the Canarians go from being 2,252,465 at the beginning of this year to 2,601,928 in that start of 2037. It would be, therefore, the third autonomous community with the highest population growth in relative terms (15.5%), only preceded by the Balearic Islands (25%) and Murcia (16%); as well as the fifth in absolute terms (349,464 inhabitants).
Starting from the premise that these INE demographic projections “do not constitute a prediction, in the sense that they do not have the objective of determining the most likely evolution”, but are limited to showing “the evolution that the population of Spain would follow [and its various autonomous communities] in the event that current demographic trends continue”, the truth is that the reasons are obvious, with the Canarian case being one of the most accentuated.
Thus, the vegetative balance in the Islands would show in the next five years a rate of almost 41 more deaths than births (-40.8) per 1,000 inhabitants (the state average would be -28.5 during the same period), with the aggravating in the case of the Canary Islands that this negative balance will be accentuated more and more by the generalized aging in a territory that experienced its particular baby boom from 1970.
Regarding the migratory balance with other autonomous communities, the balance between those who arrive and those who leave from and to other Spanish territories would continue practically at par (-1.0 per thousand inhabitants until 2037).
The great difference that would explain this notable population increase in the Archipelago lies in the current migratory flow with respect to foreign countries, given that the new demographic projection of the INE places the Canary Islands as the second autonomous region that would register a greater difference in the next fifteen years between those who who arrived from abroad and those who left, with a balance of 181.9 per 1,000 inhabitants in favor of the former, only below the Balearic Islands (190.6) and well above the state average (112.6). It is necessary to clarify that in this arrival of new residents from abroad, the irregular migration that survives the Canarian boat route does not play, not even remotely, a significant role, since the vast majority of these people continue on their way to the European continent. .
It remains to add some data at the national level: Spain would exceed 51 million inhabitants in 2037; Catalonia and Madrid would register the greatest absolute growth, and Castilla-León and Asturias, the greatest falls.
If the Canary Islands lack anything, it is territory, to the point that the 2.25 million current residents already represent an unsustainable burden for it, a problem aggravated by the economic dependence on tourism, by far the greatest source of wealth for the Islands, given the overload by the consequent floating population. It is known that these tourist areas have suffered for decades from lack of services necessary to serve their real population, such as public hospitals and police in line with it.
But this does not prevent it from being in the entire Archipelago where such problems are repeated, given that, the larger the population, the more investments are needed in strategic sectors such as waste treatment, transport, the production of sufficient energy and even the need to guarantee the supply of basic products, starting with food.
The Parliament of the Canary Islands set up a commission three weeks ago to study how to undo such a Gordian knot that threatens to collapse the Islands.